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The economic confidence index in Turkey, which was 98.6 in March, decreased to 93.9 in April. The fall in the index; resulted from decreases in consumer, real sector (manufacturing industry), service, retail trade and construction sector confidence indices. In the April period, consumer confidence index decreased to 80.2, real sector confidence index 107.4, service sector confidence index 103.3, retail trade confidence index 103.1 and construction confidence index 77.3.
In the sectoral confidence indexes, a slowdown was observed due to the impact of Covid-19 and related restrictions, as well as macroeconomic reflections in the previous period. The next period, on the other hand, enabled us to see an acceleration in the sectoral context in the first part of the year, especially with the optimism brought by vaccination. Particularly, the reflections of this were realized in a way that affected the general growth momentum as well as the manufacturing industry, which remained strong. However, we will start to see sectoral reflections again with the increase in Covid cases and reclosures since the end of 1Q21. While sectors such as services receive direct reflection, indirect effects are likely to be seen in other sectors and areas of the economy.
We will encounter the situation that restaurants, cafes, and that style businesses will not be able to work at full capacity during the full closing period, which includes the month of Ramadan, and they are also affected by a loss of turnover and employment. The effects of this will depend on the degree of opening is advanced after the end of complete closure. In the retail industry, there will again be a rotation between the store and the online method, and we will see the rapid increase in online sales. Just before the full closure, the intensifying forward demand effect on the core goods side will explain the sector’s dynamism. Here, especially the food item will make a very important contribution.
On the side of the sectors most relevant to financial conditions; Due to the increase in housing loan interest rates, a slowdown effect is observed in the construction sector. The possibility of seeing housing loan campaigns such as the 2Q20 – 3Q20 periods is not likely for now due to the tightness of monetary policy practices. CBRT still keeps the policy rate at 19% due to the increasing inflation. It is necessary to look at the period of 3Q21 and beyond, where inflation is expected to decline due to the base effect, and to reassess with the current conditions. Of course, the high interest rates are a limiting factor in terms of real sector confidence. Its reflection on the consumer side is negative through the demand for the sold product as well as in terms of both the investments of the companies regarding the production line, capacity, employment and. The economic expectations that have improved with vaccination and the issues of not stopping production during the shutdown period are positive for the real sector.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
